Counterfactual Potency

Abstract

Counterfactual thoughts typically take the form of implied or explicit if-then statements. We propose that the multiplicative combination of " if likelihood" (the degree to which the antecedent condition of the counterfactual is perceived to be likely) and " then likelihood" (the perceived conditional likelihood of the outcome of the counterfactual, given the antecedent condition) determine the strength and impact of counterfactuals. This construct, termed counterfactual potency, is a reliable predictor of the degree of influence of counterfactual thinking upon judgments of regret, causation, and responsibility. Through 4 studies, we demonstrate the predictive power of this construct in a variety of contexts and show that it plays a causal role in determining the strength of the effects of counterfactual thought. Implications of counterfactual potency as a central factor of counterfactual influence are discussed. © 2010 American Psychological Association.