Encouraging an Honest Consensus

Abstract

It is important that people in our society have better incentives for honesty and care when making public statements. On controversial issues, non-experts want to find a visible consensus of relevant experts. In this paper I explore the possi- bility of accomplishing both of these goals at low cost with futures markets in ideas. After explaining the motivation and basic concept, I will give a sample scenario, explain the procedures in more detail, and then discuss possible advan- tages, criticisms, and related work. As an amateur, I appeal to relevant experts to offer criticism and insights from their respective fields.