Evaluation of the natural history of patients who aspirate

Abstract

Objectives/Hypothesis: The natural clinical progression of aspiration to eventual pulmonary compromise is not well understood. We hypothesized that dietary modification recommendations, Penetration-Aspiration Scale (PAS) score, and dysphagia etiology would be associated with changes in time to first pulmonary event and overall survival for patients with documented aspiration on radiologic testing. This study identified a cohort of patients with detectable unsensed penetration or aspiration on videofluoroscopic swallowing study (VFSS), and followed this cohort over time for development of pulmonary events and death. We then evaluated the association of aspiration severity and dietary modification recommendations on incidence of these endpoints. Study Design: Retrospective chart review. Methods: A total of 2,616 VFSS exam reports were reviewed from our institution performed between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2010. Aspiration or unsensed penetration (PAS of 5 or greater) was detected in 564 (21.5%) of these patients, who were then included in the study cohort. Medical records were reviewed retrospectively for development of pulmonary events (pneumonia, pneumonitis, or other life-threatening pulmonary illness) and all-cause mortality for up to 54 months after initial VFSS. Univariate Kaplan-Meier analysis and multivariate Cox regression were performed for time to first pulmonary event and survival predicted by recommended diet, PAS score, and dysphagia etiology. Results: Dysphagia etiology was highly associated with increased development of pulmonary events for some patients, especially those with generalized nonspecific dysphagia due to deconditioning or frailty (hazard ratio [HZ] vs. stroke 2.95, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.53-5.69, P =.001) and esophageal dysphagia (HZ: 2.66, 95% CI: 1.17-6.02, P =.019). Dysphagia etiology was also associated with increased mortality for patients with generalized nonspecific dysphagia due to deconditioning or frailty (HZ: 3.32, 95% CI: 2.0-5.52, P