Expert judgment about uncertainty: Bayesian decision making in realistic settings.

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Abstract

Reviews Bayesian research on experts' judgments about uncertainty in the real world. 6 central questions are raised concerning (a) the economic value of probability statements, (b) the use of actuarial vs subjective probablilities, (c) individual vs consensus probability assessments, (d) the role of computers in probability assessment, (e) the use of data by assessors, and (f) expertise and the training of individuals to become experts; relevant laboratory evidence is discussed. These questions serve as a framework for reviewing the literature on experts' assessments of uncertainty in 4 separate areas of applied research--the military, meterology, medicine, and business. (7 p ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)

Author-supplied keywords

  • *Decision Making
  • *Statistical Probability

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Authors

  • Barbara H Beach

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