Forest responses to increasing aridity and warmth in the southwestern United States.

  • McDowell N
  • Williams A
  • Xu C
 et al. 
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Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many global forest biomes due to a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history1-12. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle11,12. We use a hydraulic corollary to Darcy’s law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology13, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants with large height, isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy’s law indicates today’s forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, due to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy’s corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. Given the robustness of Darcy’s law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today’s forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial re-organization of their structure and carbon storage.

Author-supplied keywords

  • Animals
  • Climate
  • Climate Change
  • Computer Simulation
  • Droughts
  • Ecosystem
  • Fires
  • Insects
  • Insects: pathogenicity
  • Ips confusus
  • Models
  • Southwestern United States
  • Temperature
  • Theoretical
  • Trees
  • Trees: parasitology
  • bark beetle
  • drought
  • pinyon pine
  • southwestern USA
  • tree mortality

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  • Nathan G. Nate G. McDowell

  • a Park Williams

  • Chonggang Xu

  • William T. Pockman

  • Lee T. Dickman

  • Sanna Sevanto

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