Journal article

A global model study of the impact of land-use change in Borneo on atmospheric composition

Warwick N, Archibald A, Ashworth K, Dorsey J, Edwards P, Heard D, Langford B, Lee J, Misztal P, Whalley L, Pyle J ...see all

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 13, issue 18 (2013) pp. 9183-9194

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In this study, a high resolution version of the Cambridge p-TOMCAT
chemical transport model is used, along with measurement data from the
2008 NERC-funded Oxidant and Particle Photochemical Processes (OP3)
project, to examine the potential impact of the expansion of oil palm in
Borneo on atmospheric composition. Several model emission scenarios are
run for the OP3 measurement period, incorporating emissions from both
global datasets and local flux measurements. Using the OP3 observed
isoprene fluxes and OH recycling chemistry in p-TOMCAT substantially
improves the comparison between modelled and observed isoprene and OH
concentrations relative to using MEGAN isoprene emissions without OH
recycling. However, a similar improvement was also achieved without
using HOx recycling, by fixing boundary layer isoprene concentrations
over Borneo to follow the OP3 observations. An extreme hypothetical
future scenario, in which all of Borneo is converted to oil palm
plantation, assessed the sensitivity of the model to changes in isoprene
and NOx emissions associated with land-use change. This scenario
suggested a 70% upper limit on surface ozone increases resulting from
land-use change on Borneo, excluding the impact of future changes in
emissions elsewhere. Although the largest changes in this scenario
occurred directly over Borneo, the model also calculated notable
regional changes of O-3, OH and other species downwind of Borneo and in
the free troposphere.

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  • James DorseyCentre for Atmospheric Science, University of Manchester

  • N. J. Warwick

  • A. T. Archibald

  • K. Ashworth

  • P. M. Edwards

  • D. E. Heard

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