Improving the accuracy of forward exchange rate forecasts by correcting for prior bias

  • Kremer R
  • Shaffer S
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Using several samples of forward exchange rate forecasts for the British pound vs. the US dollar, this article explores the post-sample predictive performance of adjusting the forecasts for recent empirical bias. Numerical accuracy is assessed via both parametric and nonparametric tests, and directional properties are also evaluated. The evidence suggests that simple linear adjustments can yield significant improvements in predictive accuracy, even if the measured bias in the original forecasts is not statistically significant. ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR Copyright of Applied Financial Economics is the property of Routledge and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts)

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  • Robert Kremer

  • Sherrill Shaffer

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