How to incorporate the spatial dimension in destination choice models: The case of Antwerp

Abstract

This paper presents and estimates destination choice models based on a large sample of intra-urban trips. Particular attention is paid to incorporating the effects of the spatial dimension. The data used relate to non-work trips in the agglomeration of Antwerp (Belgium). A geographical analysis is performed in order to represent the city and its suburbs by a limited set of zones of destinations and to characterize these zones in terms of land use. Different types of discrete choice model are compared in terms of utility function, global formulation and performance. The mixed nested logit formulation with random coefficients appears to be the most attractive. The results confirm the difficulty of grasping spatial realities by simple quantitative measurements but also illustrate the importance of 'space' when choosing a destination. The empirical results also show that land use and urban development policies clearly have their effect on urban mobility.