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Inside the planning fallacy: The causes and consequences of optimistic time predictions

Buehler R, Griffin D, Ross M ...see all

Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment, issue December (2002) pp. 250-270 Published by Cambridge University Press

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Abstract

The authors' research focuses on the mechanisms by which people segregate their general theories about their predictions (i.e., that they are usually unrealistic) from their specific expectations for an upcoming task. This chapter begins by documenting the ubiquity of optimistic predictions in everyday tasks. Topics discussed in this chapter include the following: a cognitive model of the planning fallacy, examining cognitive processes, the generality of the planning fallacy, motivation and the planning fallacy, and debiasing the planning fallacy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)

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Authors

  • Roger Buehler

  • Dale Griffin

  • Michael Ross

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