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Journal article

Interannual variation patterns of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature in observations and model simulations

Steinbrecht W, Haßler B, Uhl C, Dameris M, Giorgetta M, Grewe V, Manzini E, Matthes S, Schnadt C, Steil B, Winkler P...(+11 more)

Atmos. Chem. Phys, vol. 6 (2006) pp. 349-374

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Abstract

We report results from a multiple linear regres-sion analysis of long-term total ozone observations (1979 to 2000, by TOMS/SBUV), of temperature reanalyses (1958 to 2000, NCEP), and of two chemistry-climate model sim-ulations (1960 to 1999, by ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM (=E39/C), and MAECHAM4-CHEM). The model runs are transient experiments, where observed sea surface temper-atures, increasing source gas concentrations (CO 2 , C FCs, CH 4 , N 2 O, NO x), 11-year solar cycle, volcanic aerosols and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are all accounted for. MAECHAM4-CHEM covers the atmosphere from the surface up to 0.01 hPa (≈80 km). For a proper represen-tation of middle atmosphere (MA) dynamics, it includes a parametrization for momentum deposition by dissipating gravity wave spectra. E39/C, on the other hand, has its top layer centered at 10 hPa (≈30 km). It is targeted on pro-cesses near the tropopause, and has more levels in this re-gion. Despite some problems, both models generally repro-duce the observed amplitudes and much of the observed low-latitude patterns of the various modes of interannual variabil-ity in total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature. In most aspects MAECHAM4-CHEM performs slightly better than E39/C. MAECHAM4-CHEM overestimates the long-term decline of total ozone, whereas E39/C underestimates the decline over Antarctica and at northern mid-latitudes. The true long-term decline in winter and spring above the

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