A model for predicting the transmission rate of malaria from serological data

  • Gatton M
  • Hogarth W
  • Saul A
 et al. 
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Abstract

A model is developed to estimate the duration for which malaria antibody levels in the blood remain high in a closed population. This estimate can be used to calculate the transmission rate within a region, in conjunction with the serological information contained in the population. The model is used on data obtained from a study of malaria in the Philippines and shows excellent agreement. It is subsequently utilised for predictions and seems to be an appropriate vehicle for this purpose.

Author-supplied keywords

  • Antibodies
  • Malaria
  • Model
  • Serological
  • Transmission

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Authors

  • M. Gatton

  • W. Hogarth

  • A. Saul

  • P. Dayananda

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