While MOOCs offer educational data on a new scale, many educators find great potential of the big data including detailed activity records of every learner. A learner’s behavior such as if a learner will drop out from the course can be predicted. How to provide an effective, economical, and scalable method to detect cheating on tests such as surrogate exam-taker is a challenging problem. In this paper, we present a grade predicting method that uses student activity features to predict whether a learner may get a certification if he/she takes a test. The method consists of two-step classifications: motivation classification (MC) and grade classification (GC). The MC divides all learners into three groups including certification earning, video watching, and course sampling. The GC then predicts a certification earning learner may or may not obtain a certification. Our experiment shows that the proposed method can fit the classification model at a fine scale and it is possible to find a surrogate exam-taker.
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