Many statistical and molecular mechanics models have been developed and tested for major histocompatibility complex peptide (MHCp) binding predictions during the last decade. The statistical model prediction using pooled peptide sequence data and three-dimensional modeling prediction by molecular mechanics calculations have been assessed for efficiency and human leukocyte antigen diversity coverage. We describe a novel predictive model using information gleaned from 29 human MHCp crystal structures. The validation for the new model is performed using four different sets of data: (1) MHCp crystal structures, (2) peptides with known IC50binding values, (3) peptides tested positive by tetramer staining, (4) peptides with known binding information at the MHCBN database. The model produces high prediction efficiencies (average 60 %) with good sensitivity (∼50%-73%) and specificity (52%-58%) values. The average positive predictive value of the model is 89%, while the average negative predictive value is only 18%. The efficiency is very high in predicting binders and very low in predicting nonbinders. This model is superior to many existing methods because of its potential application to any given MHC allele whose sequence is clearly defined. © American Society for Histocompatibility and Immunogenetics, 2003. Published by Elsevier Inc.
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