Occurrence of Finite-Time Singularities in Epidemic Models of Rupture, Earthquakes, and Starquakes

  • Sornette D
  • Helmstetter A
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We present a new kind of critical stochastic finite-time-singularity, relying on the interplay between long-memory and extreme fluctuations. We illustrate it on the well-established epidemic-type aftershock (ETAS) model for aftershocks, based solely on the most solidly documented stylized facts of seismicity (clustering in space and in time and power law Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake energies). This theory accounts for the main observations (power law acceleration and discrete scale invariant structure) of critical rupture of heterogeneous materials, of the largest sequence of starquakes ever attributed to a neutron star as well as of earthquake sequences.

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  • D. Sornette

  • A. Helmstetter

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