Optimising a probabilistic model of the development of play in soccer

  • Castellano-Paulis J
  • Hernández-Mendo A
  • Morales-Sánchez V
 et al. 
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Abstract

We present a probabilistic model based on the one developed by Hernandez Mendo and Anguera (Revista de Psicologica Social, 16(1), 71- 93, 2001). Here we have tried to break down the interaction contexts that the opposing teams are able to generate and transform during the game. We are aware that a given player or team does not produce consistent behaviour in similar situations. However, a degree of uncertainty is assumed to exist regarding whether the results obtained are a specific function of the analysis used. In order to carry out this research a category system which optimized that used in the previous model was developed. This system should enable the interaction between teams to be observed within the actual play of a soccer game. A lag sequential analysis was performed on the basis of a coding of the behavioural flow. After describing the behavioural patterns obtained a probabilistic model of the development of play in soccer is proposed

Author-supplied keywords

  • Behavioural patterns
  • Interaction context
  • Lag sequential analysis
  • Lag-log design
  • Probabilistic model
  • Soccer game

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