Predicting reactions to environmental change

Abstract

(from the introduction) The authors attack the problem of inaccuracies in the prediction of future preferences. The authors note that environmental policy decisions require people to assess not only the consequences of future actions but also their preferences for those outcomes. They argue that there is good reason to expect systematic deviations from accuracy in predicted expected utility (PEU), and that if predictions systematically overestimate or underestimate the impact of environmental problems on experience utility, funds for the environment may be misallocated. The empirical study provided in this chapter suggests that people overestimate the effect of an environmental change on their quality of life, and underestimate their ability to adapt to change. The authors provide arguments to shift environmental research to focus not only on the effects of environmental changes but also on how people will experience those changes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved)