Probabilities for a Period and Its Subperiods : Theoretical Relations for Forecasting

  • Olume V
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Consider an event definable in terms of two subevents as, for example,
the occurrence of precipitation within a 24-h period is definable
in terms of the occurrence of precipitation within each of the 12-h
subperiods. A complete forecast must specify three probabilities;
these may be marginal probabilities, one for the period and two for
subperiods. Theoretical relations between these probabilities are
investigated and solutions are presented to three problems encountered
in operational forecasting: (i) guaranteeing that the marginal probabilities
jointly obey the laws of probability, (ii) structuring admissible
procedures for adjusting the initial (guidance) probabilities by
forecasters, and (iii) formulating optimal estimators of the probability
for period in terms of the probabilities for subperiods.

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  • V Olume

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