Procedures guide for structured expert judgement in accident consequence modelling

  • Cooke R
  • Goossens L
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Abstract

A protocol is outlined for using structured expert judgement to generate uncertainty data for uncertainty analyses. The use of performance based weighting as an instrument to enable optimisation of the aggregated experts' assessments is emphasised. Examples are shown from the EC/USNRC joint study on Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis.

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Authors

  • R. M. Cooke

  • L. H.J. Goossens

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