A prognostic framework for health management of coupled systems

Abstract

This paper describes a unified data-driven prognostic framework that combines failure time data, static parameter data and dynamic (time-series) data. The approach employs Cox proportional hazards model (Cox PHM) and soft dynamic multiple fault diagnosis algorithm (DMFD) for inferring the degraded state trajectories of components and to estimate their remaining useful life (RUL). This framework takes into account the cross-subsystem fault propagation, a case prevalent in any networked and embedded system. The key idea is to use Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the survival functions of error codes and symptoms (soft test outcomes/prognostic indicators) from failure time data and static parameter data, and use them to infer the survival functions of components via a soft DMFD algorithm. The average remaining useful life and its higher-order central moments (e.g., variance, skewness, kurtosis) can be estimated from these component survival functions. The proposed prognostic framework has the potential to be applicable to a wide variety of systems, ranging from automobiles to aerospace systems. © 2011 IEEE.