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Journal article

On the relationship between total ozone and atmospheric dynamics and chemistry at mid-latitudes – Part 1: Statistical models and spatial fingerprints of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry

Davison A, Di Rocco S, Maeder J, Frossard L, Staehelin J, Ribatet M, Peter T, Rieder H...(+8 more)

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions (2012)

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Abstract

We use statistical models for mean and extreme values of total column
ozone to analyze ``fingerprints{''} of atmospheric dynamics and
chemistry on long-term ozone changes at northern and southern
mid-latitudes on grid cell basis. At each grid cell, the r-largest order
statistics method is used for the analysis of extreme events in low and
high total ozone (termed ELOs and EHOs, respectively), and an
autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is used for the corresponding
mean value analysis. In order to describe the dynamical and chemical
state of the atmosphere, the statistical models include important
atmospheric covariates: the solar cycle, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
(QBO), ozone depleting substances (ODS) in terms of equivalent effective
stratospheric chlorine (EESC), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the
Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO),
and aerosol load after the volcanic eruptions of El Chichon and Mt.
Pinatubo. The influence of the individual covariates on mean and extreme
levels in total column ozone is derived on a grid cell basis. The
results show that ``fingerprints{''}, i.e., significant influence, of
dynamical and chemical features are captured in both the ``bulk{''} and
the tails of the statistical distribution of ozone, respectively
described by mean values and EHOs/ELOs. While results for the solar
cycle, QBO, and EESC are in good agreement with findings of earlier
studies, unprecedented spatial fingerprints are retrieved for the
dynamical covariates. Column ozone is enhanced over Labrador/Greenland,
the North Atlantic sector and over the Norwegian Sea, but is reduced
over Europe, Russia and the Eastern United States during the positive
NAO phase, and vice-versa during the negative phase. The NAO's southern
counterpart, the AAO, strongly influences column ozone at lower southern
mid-latitudes, including the southern parts of South America and the
Antarctic Peninsula, and the central southern mid-latitudes. Results for
both NAO and AAO confirm the importance of atmospheric dynamics for
ozone variability and changes from local/regional to global scales.

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