Science and technology foresight baker's dozen: A pocket primer of comparative and combined foresight methods

  • Smith J
  • Saritas O
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Abstract

Access to this document was granted through an Emerald subscription provided by emerald-srm:506952 [] For Authors If you would like to write for this, or any other Emerald publication, then please use our Emerald for Authors service information about how to choose which publication to write for and submission guidelines are available for all. Please visit www.emeraldinsight.com/ authors for more information. About Emerald www.emeraldinsight.com Emerald is a global publisher linking research and practice to the benefit of society. The company manages a portfolio of more than 290 journals and over 2,350 books and book series volumes, as well as providing an extensive range of online products and additional customer resources and services. Emerald is both COUNTER 4 and TRANSFER compliant. The organization is a partner of the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE) and also works with Portico and the LOCKSS initiative for digital archive preservation. Abstract Purpose – This paper aims to fill a perceived gap in the tool bag of a foresight practitioner – namely the need for a quickly accessible and concise overview of the main methods being employed in contemporary foresight, and some guidance on when and how one can select or combine several methods within a single project or focus area to achieve the best results. The intention is that such a primer can be easily reproduced into a format suitable and portable for managers to consult when in project meetings to design foresight processes and select methods. Design/methodology/approach – Using a matrix table plus some text analysis and diagrams, a concise review of the dominant and most innovative tools for framing technology foresight processes is developed and summarized. Findings – The paper produces 13 foresight methods classified, summarized and referenced with a limited selection of literature references. Practical implications – The intention is that the main table and diagrams can be easily copied to a standard poster or made into a pocket pamphlet for those who wish to carry the primer with them. Originality/value – The insights in the paper are derived from the authors' foresight design and management experience, from inputs and discussions and from relevant literature sources. It is envisioned that this will be only the first pocket primer, with further editions expected in the future, as more diverse experience is gained with these methods and new approaches are tried and tested.

Author-supplied keywords

  • Delphi method
  • Forward planning
  • Perceptual mapping

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Authors

  • Jack E. Smith

  • Ozcan Saritas

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