Sensitivity analysis of a branching process evolving on a network with application in epidemiology

  • Hautphenne S
  • Krings G
  • Delvenne J
 et al. 
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In the study of networks, it is often insightful to use algorithms to determine mesoscale features such as "community structure", in which densely connected sets of nodes constitute "communities" that have sparse connections to other communities. The most popular way of detecting communities algorithmically is to optimize the quality function known as modularity. When optimizing modularity, one compares the actual connections in a (static or time-dependent) network to the connections obtained from a random-graph ensemble that acts as a null model. The communities are then the sets of nodes that are connected to each other densely relative to what is expected from the null model. Clearly, the process of community detection depends fundamentally on the choice of null model, so it is important to develop and analyze novel null models that take into account appropriate features of the system under study. In this paper, we investigate the effects of using null models that take incorporate spatial information, and we propose a novel null model based on the radiation model of population spread. We also develop novel synthetic spatial benchmark networks in which the connections between entities are based on distance or flux between nodes, and we compare the performance of both static and time-dependent radiation null models to the standard ("Newman-Girvan") null model for modularity optimization and a recently-proposed gravity null model. In our comparisons, we use both the above synthetic benchmarks and time-dependent correlation networks that we construct using countrywide dengue fever incidence data for Peru. We also evaluate a recently-proposed correlation null model, which was developed specifically for correlation networks that are constructed from time series, on the epidemic-correlation data.

Author-supplied keywords

  • Branching process
  • Diffusion on network
  • Epidemic model
  • Influenza
  • Sensitivity analysis

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  • Sophie Hautphenne

  • Gautier Krings

  • Jean Charles Delvenne

  • Vincent D. Blondel

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