Short-Term Traffic Flow Combination Forecast by Co-integration Theory

  • Lan J
  • Guo M
  • Lu H
 et al. 
  • 12


    Mendeley users who have this article in their library.
  • 7


    Citations of this article.


Short-term traffic flow prediction is a priority issue of intelligent transportation system. The accuracy of the prediction results directly affects the traffic control and management. Therefore, it is the key technology for the advanced traffic management information system. This paper briefly describes the concept of co-integration and error correction model, and then verifies the validity of the combination of traffic flow forecasting model using the co-integration of series. It also improves the stability of the combination forecasting model through the error correction model. The historical and real-time traffic flow data, collected form the Second Ring Road of Beijing, are used to verify the model. The results indicate that the combination model based on the co-integration and error correction model meets the actual traffic flow characteristics well and obtains a better prediction result.

Author-supplied keywords

  • co-integration theory
  • combined forecast method
  • error correction
  • intelligent transportation
  • short-term traffic flow prediction

Get free article suggestions today

Mendeley saves you time finding and organizing research

Sign up here
Already have an account ?Sign in

Find this document


  • Jinhui Lan

  • Min Guo

  • Haifeng Lu

  • Xiang Xiao

Cite this document

Choose a citation style from the tabs below

Save time finding and organizing research with Mendeley

Sign up for free