A simulation-optimization model for selecting the location of fuel-breaks to minimize expected losses from forest fires

  • Rytwinski A
  • Crowe K
  • 38

    Readers

    Mendeley users who have this article in their library.
  • 20

    Citations

    Citations of this article.

Abstract

Fuel-breaks function to restrict the spread of wildfire through a forest and thereby reduce the damage to values lost when fires escape. The challenge of selecting optimal locations of fuel-breaks arises from the uncertainty over how future fires might originate and spread spatially in the future. In this research, we evaluate a new approach to addressing this uncertainty through the formulation and application of a decision support model using simulation-optimization. The problem is formulated as a combinatorial simulation-optimization problem with the objective of minimizing fire-risk subject to a limit on the total area to be used as fuel-breaks. A stochastic simulation model of fire-spread was designed to estimate the fire-risk of each candidate solution produced by a metaheuristic search algorithm. The model was tested on a forest of 220,000 ha in north-western Ontario. The objective function (total fire-risk) of the solution found using the simulation-optimization model was significantly lower than the objective function of a solution found using a greedy heuristic-a spatially blind approach, by which the highest risk stands were iteratively removed until the allowable limit on fuel-breaks was reached. This significant difference indicates that the spatial relationships between selected fuel-breaks is an important factor in reducing a forest's total fire-risk. Hence, the spatial layouts of the best solutions were visually analyzed using GIS-software to illustrate patterns that result in reduced fire-risk at the landscape-scale. We conclude that this modeling approach, while computationally intensive, can be used to support improved spatial decisions on the location of fuel-breaks. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Author-supplied keywords

  • Fuel-management
  • Operations research
  • Simulation-optimization
  • Stochastic fire simulation
  • Wildfire

Get free article suggestions today

Mendeley saves you time finding and organizing research

Sign up here
Already have an account ?Sign in

Find this document

Get full text

Authors

  • Adam Rytwinski

  • Kevin A. Crowe

Cite this document

Choose a citation style from the tabs below

Save time finding and organizing research with Mendeley

Sign up for free