SMIC 74 -- A method for constructing and ranking scenarios

  • Duperrin J
  • Godet M
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Abstract

A valid concept of what the future could be implies the existence of an overall conjectural framework which makes full allowance for the dynamics and complexity of the various systems involved. Such a framework must integrate the variable factors which determine the behaviour of all the economic and other agents contributing to the shape of the future, even when these variables are of a qualitative, subjective nature. A new method based on the cross-impact analysis is proposed to improve decision-making processes. A simple example is given to illustrate how this method can be used in forecasting studies and scenarios.

Author-supplied keywords

  • Cross-impact Analysis
  • SMIC

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Authors

  • J C Duperrin

  • M Godet

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