SST forecast skill of the new intra-seasonal configuration of POAMA-2

Abstract

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology's (the Bureau) seasonal prediction system Predictive Ocean and Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) has been upgraded to version 2. The spatial skill of this model in predicting sea surface temperature (SST), as measured by the correlation of anomalies over the 29 year period 1982 to 2010, is documented herein. POAMA is a dynamical global coupled model, and version 2 has been run operationally (fortnightly) since early 2011. POAMA exists in two configurations: a seasonal configuration which is run nine months into the future and is used for operational products, and an intra-seasonal configuration (also known as the multi-week configuration) which has been developed more recently and is (currently) run routinely in research mode to four months into the future. The intra-seasonal configuration is scheduled to replace the seasonal configuration operationally during 2012. Operational products currently utilising POAMA include seasonal ENSO outlooks(http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/) and SST anomaly information for the Great Barrier Reef (Spillman 2011). This study documents a baseline spatial SST skill assessment of POAMA version 2, and compares the skill of the intra-seasonal configuration with the skill of the existing seasonal configuration.