Sub-seasonal behaviour of Asian summer monsoon under a changing climate: assessments using CMIP5 models

  • Sooraj K
  • Terray P
  • Xavier P
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The inference is that there are significant future changes in rainfall probability distributions and not only a uniform shift in the mean rainfall over the NASM region. Rain-fall suppression over SASM seems to be associated with changes involving multiple rainfall events and shows a larger model spread, thus making its interpretation more complex compared to NASM. Moisture budget diagnostics generally show that the low-level moisture convergence, due to stronger increase of water vapour in the atmos-phere, acts positively to future rainfall changes, especially for heaviest rainfall events. However, it seems that the dynamic component of moisture convergence, associated with vertical motion, shows a strong spatial and rainfall category dependency, sometimes offsetting the effect of the water vapour increase. Additionally, we found that the moisture convergence is mainly dominated by the climato-logical vertical motion acting on the humidity changes and the interplay between all these processes proves to play a pivotal role for regulating the intensities of various rainfall events in the two domains.

Author-supplied keywords

  • Asian summer monsoon
  • Daily rainfall extremes
  • Moist mechanisms
  • North–south rainfall dipole pattern
  • Precipitation characteristics

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  • K. P. Sooraj

  • Pascal Terray

  • Prince Xavier

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