This paper explores the relationship between innovation and the survival probability of manufacturing firms in the Netherlands, conditional on firm age and size. The empirical analysis combines firm level data on innovation, derived from the second Community Innovation Survey, and on the date of exit, from the Business Register of all firms active in the Netherlands. To estimate the survival probability of a firm we use a non-parametric approach, based on the calculation of Transition Probability Matrices over different time periods. The results show that innovation has a positive and significant effect on the probability of firms' survival. This effect increases over time and is conditional on firm age and size; we observe that small and young firms are the most exposed to the risk of exit, as found in earlier studies, but also those that most benefit of innovation to survive in the market, especially in the longer term. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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