Three-month real-time dengue forecast models: An early warning system for outbreak alerts and policy decision support in Singapore

  • Shi Y
  • Liu X
  • Kok S
 et al. 
  • 63

    Readers

    Mendeley users who have this article in their library.
  • 13

    Citations

    Citations of this article.

Abstract

BACKGROUND: With a tropical rainforest climate, rapid urbanization, changing demography and ecology, Singapore experiences endemic dengue, with the last large outbreak in 2013 culminating in 22170 cases. In the absence of a vaccine on the market, vector control is the key approach for prevention.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to forecast the evolution of dengue epidemics in Singapore to provide early warning of outbreaks and to facilitate public health response to moderate an impending outbreak.

METHODS: We developed a set of statistical models using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) methods to forecast the weekly incidence of dengue notifications over a three-month time horizon. This forecasting tool makes use of a variety of data streams, updatable weekly, including recent case data, meteorological data, vector surveillance data, and population-based national statistics. The forecasting methodology was compared to alternative approaches that have been proposed to model dengue case data (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and step-down linear regression) by fielding them on the 2013 dengue epidemic, the largest on record in Singapore.

RESULTS: Operationally useful forecasts were obtained at a three month lag using the LASSO-derived-models. Based on mean average percentage error, the LASSO approach provided more accurate forecasts than the previously-published methods we assessed. We demonstrate its utility in Singapore's dengue control program by providing a forecast of the 2013 outbreak for advance preparation of outbreak response.

CONCLUSIONS: Statistical models built using machine learning methods such as LASSO have the potential to markedly improve forecasting techniques for recurrent infectious disease outbreaks such as dengue.

Get free article suggestions today

Mendeley saves you time finding and organizing research

Sign up here
Already have an account ?Sign in

Find this document

Authors

  • Yuan Shi

  • Xu Liu

  • Suet Yheng Kok

  • Jayanthi Rajarethinam

  • Shaohong Liang

  • Grace Yap

Cite this document

Choose a citation style from the tabs below

Save time finding and organizing research with Mendeley

Sign up for free