• Krzysztofowicz R
  • Davis D
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We hope to have made a case for the following propositions: (1) The concept of a flood forecastresponse system, which captures interactions among complex hydrologic, organizational, behavioral, and economic factors, provides a logical and mathematical framework for analyzing system improvements. (2) The performance measures for forecasteresponse systems, which capture the interplay between the quality of forecasts and the quality of response, provide a comprehensive, "big picture" of the system's economic performance and also indicate the systems potential for improvements. (3) The economic value of flood forecasts and the benefits to be derived by the general public from the planned improvements of hydrologic forecasting by the National Weather Service are substantial and can be estimated quantitatively. (4) The systems approach (supported by techniques from operations research, constructs from statistical decision theory, and empirical evidence from economics and cognitive psychology) can contribute a conceptual framework and knowledge base useful for long-term planning in a public sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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  • Roman Krzysztofowicz

  • Donald R. Davis

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