Towards a science of adaptation that prioritises the poor

Abstract

In the natural sciences, model-based prediction is used to develop and inform adaptation strategies. The article begins with a brief review of progress in modelling of climate and its impacts. The question is then posed: how useful are these developments likely to be in supporting pro-poor adaptation? Examples from crop and climate prediction are used throughout. A framework for assessing the usefulness of model predictions in informing adaptation is reviewed. New thinking on how such a framework might prioritise the needs of the poor is then presented, Both 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' approaches have inadequacies, an issue-based perspective is therefore needed. Finally, the implications of such a perspective for interdisciplinary pro-poor research are discussed. We need to go beyond simply applying existing science, no matter how 'interdisciplinary' the methods. In order to put science at the service of the poor, greater integration across the scientific community is required. © Institute of Development Studies.