Transmission of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus H5N1 within Flocks during the 2004 Epidemic in Thailand

  • Tiensin T
  • Nielen M
  • Vernooij H
 et al. 
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Abstract

This present study is the first to quantify the transmission of avian
influenza virus H5N1 within flocks during the 2004 epidemic in Thailand.
It uses the flock-level mortality data to estimate the transmission-rate
parameter (beta) and the basic reproduction number (R-0). The point
estimates of beta varied from 2.26/ day (95% confidence interval
{[}CI], 2.01-2.55) for a 1-day infectious period to 0.66/ day (95% CI,
0.50-0.87) for a 4-day infectious period, whereas the accompanying R-0
varied from 2.26(95% CI, 2.01-2.55) to 2.64(95% CI, 2.02-3.47).
Although the point estimates of beta of backyard chickens and fighting
cocks raised together were lower than those of laying hens and broiler
chickens, this difference was not statistically significant. These
results will enable us to assess the control measures in simulation
studies. They also indicate that, for the elimination of the virus, a
critical proportion of the susceptible poultry population in a flock
(i.e., 80% of the population) needs to be vaccinated.

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Authors

  • Thanawat Tiensin

  • Mirjam Nielen

  • Hans Vernooij

  • Thaweesak Songserm

  • Wantanee Kalpravidh

  • Sirikan Chotiprasatintara

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