Vulnerability and adaptability of wheat production in different climatic zones of Pakistan under climate change scenarios

  • Sultana H
  • Ali N
  • Iqbal M
 et al. 
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Abstract��Ten wheat production sites of Pakistan were categorized
into four climatic zones i.e. arid, semi-arid, sub-humid and humid
to explore the vulnerability of wheat production in these zones to
climate change using CSM-Cropsim-CERES-Wheat model. The analysis
was based on multi-year (1971�2000) crop model simulation runs using
daily weather series under scenarios of increased temperature and
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO2) along with two scenarios
of water management. Apart from this, sowing date as an adaptation
option to offset the likely impacts of climate change was also considered.
Increase in temperature resulted in yield declines in arid, semi-arid
and sub-humid zone. But the humid zone followed a positive trend
of gain in yield with rise in temperature up to 4�C. Within a water
regime, increase in CO2 concentration from 375 to 550 and 700�ppm
will exert positive effect on gain in wheat yield but this positive
effect is significantly variable in different climatic zones under
rainfed conditions than the full irrigation. The highest response
was shown by arid zone followed by semi-arid, sub-humid and humid
zones. But if the current baseline water regimes (i.e. full irrigation
in arid and semi-arid zones and rainfed in sub-humid and humid zones)
persist in future, the sub-humid zone will be most benefited in terms
of significantly higher percent gain in yield by increasing CO2 level,
mainly because of its rainfed water regime. Within a CO2 level the
changes in water supply from rainfed to full irrigation shows an
intense degree of responsiveness in terms of yield gain at 375�ppm
CO2 level compared to 550 and 700�ppm. Arid and semi-arid zones were
more responsive compared to sub-humid and humid zones. Rise in temperature
reduced the length of crop life cycle in all areas, though at an
accelerated rate in the humid zone. These results revealed that the
climatic zones have shown a variable intensity of vulnerability to
different scenarios of climate change and water management due to
their inherent specific and spatial climatic features. In order to
cope with the negative effects of climate change, alteration in sowing
date towards cooler months will be an appropriate response by the

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  • Humaira Sultana

  • Nazim Ali

  • M Iqbal

  • Arshad Khan

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