Analisis Dampak Kebijakan Pajak Ekspor dan Subsidi Harga Pupuk Terhadap Produksi dan Ekspor Kakao Indonesia Pasca Putaran Uruguay

Abstract

Indonesia is the third largest cocoa producer in the world, where South Sulawesi, West Sulawesi, Center Sulawesi and East Java Provinces as main contributor. On the other hand, there are several government policies and international trade commitments such as Uruguay Round affects the Indonesian cocoa exports and production as an important issue in this research. Therefore, the research objectives were (1) assessing factors responsible for the cocoa exports, (2) analyzing the impact of fertilizer subsidy and the export tax polices on Indonesian cocoa exports and production post Uruguay Round. The estimation of the model used time series data 1983-2002 by 2SLS Method. The key findings of the research are; (1) Indonesian cocoa exports are determined by the export price, production growth, exchange rate and time trend, (2) post-Uruguay Round, the government policy in term of fertilizer price subsidy could be strongly expected in increasing the Indonesian cocoa exports and production, where as the export tax policy has negative impact to the decreasing of export and production.