Economic impact of 2010 World Expo on Shanghai based on VAR model

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the impact of 2010 World Expo on the economic growth of Shanghai via a dynamic VAR model. In this model we take the fixed assets investment, new employment population, new tourist income as influence variables, and take GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and House Hold Consumption as influence object. By establishing VAR model (Vector Autoregressive Model) and utilizing impulse response analysis, we investigate the persistent influence of 2010 World Expo to economic aggregate and House Hold Consumption of Shanghai. Finally, we adopt variance decomposition analytical method to describe the impact on tourism demand of each variable. Our findings indicate that the World Expo contributes much to GDP and House Hold Consumption of Shanghai after 10 quarters, with the contribution degrees of 7.46% and 18.4% respectively. © 2011 IEEE.