Impacts of Near-Term Climate Change and Population Growth on Within-Year Reservoir Systems

Abstract

AbstractClimate change and increased urban demand can significantly stress water supply systems, emphasizing the importance of reallocating reservoir storage for the designed uses. Most studies on climate change assessment have analyzed arid region reservoirs due to high interannual variability in streamflows. This study focuses on a within-year reservoir system, Lake Jordan in North Carolina, from a temperate region that has been experiencing rapid growth since the 1990s. Given the interest in utilizing climate change projections for planning purposes, the current operational policies are evaluated, and revised rules for operating the within-year system over 30 year period (2012–2041) are suggested. Downscaled general circulation model (GCM) projections are used to implement the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model for the Upper Cape Fear River basin to estimate changes in mean monthly streamflows during 2012–2041 at Lake Jordan. Projected monthly streamflows from four GCMs indicate wet winter con...