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Interannual variation patterns of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature in observations and model simulations

by W Steinbrecht, B Haßler, C B Uhl, M Dameris, M A Giorgetta, V Grewe, E Manzini, S Matthes, C Schnadt, B Steil, P Winkler show all authors
Atmos. Chem. Phys ()
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We report results from a multiple linear regres-sion analysis of long-term total ozone observations (1979 to 2000, by TOMS/SBUV), of temperature reanalyses (1958 to 2000, NCEP), and of two chemistry-climate model sim-ulations (1960 to 1999, by ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM (=E39/C), and MAECHAM4-CHEM). The model runs are transient experiments, where observed sea surface temper-atures, increasing source gas concentrations (CO 2 , C FCs, CH 4 , N 2 O, NO x), 11-year solar cycle, volcanic aerosols and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are all accounted for. MAECHAM4-CHEM covers the atmosphere from the surface up to 0.01 hPa (≈80 km). For a proper represen-tation of middle atmosphere (MA) dynamics, it includes a parametrization for momentum deposition by dissipating gravity wave spectra. E39/C, on the other hand, has its top layer centered at 10 hPa (≈30 km). It is targeted on pro-cesses near the tropopause, and has more levels in this re-gion. Despite some problems, both models generally repro-duce the observed amplitudes and much of the observed low-latitude patterns of the various modes of interannual variabil-ity in total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature. In most aspects MAECHAM4-CHEM performs slightly better than E39/C. MAECHAM4-CHEM overestimates the long-term decline of total ozone, whereas E39/C underestimates the decline over Antarctica and at northern mid-latitudes. The true long-term decline in winter and spring above the

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