A system dynamics model for long range planning in railroad

Abstract

The model represents dynamic interactions between railroad track and equipment management, freight market share and internal financial variables. The model was applied to Consolidated Rail Corporation (Contrail) in the United States to evaluate impacts of different policies on Conrail's performance. In the base simulation run, Conrail slowly deteriorates physically and financially from 1980 to 2000. Simulation results indicate that only a few policies - like track abandonment and increased productivity - can cause permanent improvement in the railroad's physical and financial condition. © 1983.