A 100% renewable electricity generation system for New Zealand utilising hydro, wind, geothermal and biomass resources

Abstract

The New Zealand electricity generation system is dominated by hydro generation at approximately 60% of installed capacity between 2005 and 2007, augmented with approximately 32% fossil-fuelled generation, plus minor contributions from geothermal, wind and biomass resources. In order to explore the potential for a 100% renewable electricity generation system with substantially increased levels of wind penetration, fossil-fuelled electricity production was removed from an historic 3-year data set, and replaced by modelled electricity production from wind, geothermal and additional peaking options. Generation mixes comprising 53-60% hydro, 22-25% wind, 12-14% geothermal, 1% biomass and 0-12% additional peaking generation were found to be feasible on an energy and power basis, whilst maintaining net hydro storage. Wind capacity credits ranged from 47% to 105% depending upon the incorporation of demand management, and the manner of operation of the hydro system. Wind spillage was minimised, however, a degree of residual spillage was considered to be an inevitable part of incorporating non-dispatchable generation into a stand-alone grid system. Load shifting was shown to have considerable advantages over installation of new peaking plant. Application of the approach applied in this research to countries with different energy resource mixes is discussed, and options for further research are outlined. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.