A Bayesian network approach to threat evaluation with application to an air defense scenario

Abstract

In this paper, a precise description of the threat evaluation process is presented. This is followed by a review describing which parameters that have been suggested for threat evaluation in an air surveillance context throughout the literature, together with an overview of different algorithms for threat evaluation. Grounded in the findings from the literature review, a threat evaluation system have been developed. The system is based on a Bayesian network approach, making it possible to handle imperfect observations. The structure of the Bayesian network is described in detail. Finally, an analysis of the system's performance as applied to a synthetic scenario is presented.