Is the Rapid Increase in Maritime Transports a Threat or an Opportunity for Port Cities? A System Dynamics Analysis

Abstract

In the last decades the dramatic increase of traffics within the Mediterranean seaports has stimulated the debate on how to design effective infrastructural policies, able to boost ports’ efficiency and by this way promoting sustainable development in the surrounding areas. In this regard, system dynamics modelling appears a suitable methodological approach to deal with the management of seaports, characterized by high level of complexity, due to the number of interacting variables, actors and challenges. This paper, focusing on a middle-sized seaport within the Mediterranean basin, proposes a simulation model to portray the causal tissue of seaports’ handling capacity, financial performance and economic impact. The system-wide analyses, including stock-and-flow and causal loop diagramming, in pair with simulations of alternative policy measures, reveal the potential of such methodology in supporting local governments’ decision making and implementation.