The impact on Uganda of agricultural trade liberalisation

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact on Uganda of the liberalisation of world trade, especially in agricultural commodities, as proposed in the Uruguay Round, and of unilateral liberalisation of Uganda's own import tariffs. A CGE model of Uganda is used to model the effects of trade liberalisation, taking into account the distribution effects by household types. We can draw three broad conclusions. First, the impact of multilateral liberalisation on a low-income country such as Uganda appears to be quite slight, albeit positive, largely because there is only a slight impact on the world prices of the agricultural commodities it exports. Second, the principal gains actually arise from trade reforms that are essentially unilateral in nature. Third, the impact is likely to be pro-poor. Although the largest proportional gains are to the urban self-employed, there are significant gains in agriculture that benefit almost all categories of rural household.