Temperature responses of Turkey’s climate to the tropical volcanic eruptions over second half of the twentieth century

Abstract

We examine the climatic responses of major tropical eruptions in maximum and minimum surface air temperature (Tmax and Tmin) records in Turkey using superposed epoch analysis for volcanic eruptions of the Agung, El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanos. Within the first 2 years following a tropical volcanic eruption, the observed Tmax and Tmin data showed dominant negative anomalies over Turkey. Two winter seasons following the eruption year tended to be the most sensitive. Winter cooling may also be explained by dynamic effects due to the occurrence of positive NAO event for both the first and second post-volcanic winters. Maximum air temperatures experienced a more marked cooling than minimum ones. This is possibly due to the radiative forcing effect of the volcanic aerosols. The air temperature responses of Turkey to volcanic eruptions revealed evidently regional differences. Negative temperature anomalies were observed mainly over the Mediterranean coasts and Central Anatolia Region, while weak or even opposite anomalies occurred on the shores of the Black Sea Region and at the stations of north of the Marmara Sub-region near the Black Sea.