Estimating the Impacts of Ungauged Reservoirs Using Publicly Available Streamflow Simulations and Satellite Remote Sensing

Abstract

On the Korean Peninsula, the Imjin River is a transboundary river that flows from North Korea into South Korea. Therefore, human intervention activities in the upstream region can have a substantial impact on the downstream region of South Korea. In addition to climate impacts, there are increasing concerns regarding upstream man-made activities, particularly the operation of the Hwanggang dam located in the territory of North Korea. This study explored the feasibility of using the publicly available global hydrological model and satellite remote sensing imagery for monitoring reservoir dynamics and assessing their impacts on downstream hydrology. “Naturalized” streamflow simulation was obtained from the Group on Earth Observation (GEO) Global Water Sustainability (GEOGloWS) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Streamflow Services (GESS) model. To correct the biases of the GESS-based streamflow simulations, we employed quantile mapping using the observed streamflow from a nearby location. This method significantly reduced volume and variability biases by up to 5 times on both daily and monthly scales. Nevertheless, its effectiveness in improving temporal correlation on a daily scale in small catchments remained constrained. For the reservoir storage changes in the Hwanggang dam, we combined multiple remote sensing imagery, particularly cloud-free optical images of Landsat-8, Sentinel-2, and snow-free Sentinel-1, with the area–elevation–volume (AEV) curves derived from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM). In assessing its hydrological impacts, the study found that overall impacts within the downstream catchment in Pilseung bridge of South Korea were generally less significant compared to the upstream Hwanggang catchment. However, there was a higher probability of experiencing water shortages during wet months due to the upstream dam’s operations. The study highlights the potential benefits of utilizing the publicly available hydrological model and satellite remote sensing imagery to supplement decision makers with important information for the effective management of the transboundary river basin in ungauged regions.