Tropical cyclone initialization and prediction based on four-dimensional variational data assimilation

Abstract

Issues on the initialization and simulation of tropical cyclones (TCs) have been studied here based on four-dimensional variational data assimilation. In particular, experiments have been carried out to assess 1) what the most critical parameters for the so-called bogus data assimilation are and 2) how the current procedures for the bogus data assimilation can be further improved. It is shown that the assimilation of wind fields is more successful than that of pressure fields in improving the initial structure and prediction of TCs. It is emphasized that the geostrophic adjustment favors the pressure field to adjust to the wind field because the TC vortex is much smaller than the radius of Rossby deformation. The results suggest that a better initial condition in the wind field is critical to the simulation of TCs. Experiments from this study also show that inclusion of the initial TC movement in the data assimilation window can help improve the track prediction, particularly during the early integration period. This method is able to shed light on the improvement of TC simulation based on the bogus data assimilation. In all, the results add a theoretical interpretation of the importance of the wind field to the sea level pressure field in terms of geostrophic adjustment, as well as a time dimension of the bogus data assimilation, by assimilating a movable vortex in the four-dimensional data assimilation. © 2006 American Meteorological Society.