Earthquake casualties estimation in emergency mode

Abstract

Rough estimations, in emergency mode, of expected casualties caused by strong earthquakes are very critical for taking the proper decisions about search and rescue operations, as well as rendering humanitarian assistance. Loss computations are started as soon as input data (earthquake source parameters) are available. The efforts are made to issue a likely assessment as quickly as possible (within 30–60 min in most cases). Improvement of the procedure is sought to shorten this delay. The chapter provides a description of simulation models used for fatality and injury assessment, based on buildings and structures which have suffered different damage states during strong earthquakes. The databases on buildings and population distribution, with global coverage, used for expected casualty estimation in emergency mode are analysed. As information on the built environment is not homogeneous for all earthquake-prone countries, in order to avoid overestimation of losses with simulation model applications, it is proposed to use empirical relationships between number of casualties and earthquake magnitudes, obtained on the basis of more than 1,000 events characterised by anomalously high macroseismic effects.