An analysis of tropical cyclones impacting the Southeast United States from a regional reanalysis

Abstract

Extreme events (low probability-high impact events) such as tropical cyclones can result in loss of life, substantial socio-economic impacts and disrupt the natural environment. Atmospheric reanalysis products provide a means for understanding these events and their impacts. This paper examines the near-surface winds and precipitation from 42 observed land-falling tropical cyclones between 1979 and 2000 in a new high-resolution (10 km) reanalysis for the Southeast United States. It is shown that the near-surface wind speeds in the tropical cyclones are underestimated by almost half compared to the observed best-track data. The regional reanalysis resolves the pattern of coastal precipitation associated with the tropical cyclones; however, the average storm maximum precipitation is too high resulting in large storm-related precipitation farther inland than observed. Possible reasons for the deficiencies are discussed. © 2012 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.