Prediction of construction litigation outcome - A case-based reasoning approach

Abstract

Since construction claims are normally affected by a large number of complex and interrelated factors, it will be advantageous to the parties to a dispute to know with some certainty how the case would be resolved if it were taken to court. The application of recent artificial intelligence technologies can be cost-effective in this problem domain. In this paper, a case-based reasoning (CBR) approach is adopted to predict the outcome of construction claims, on the basis of characteristics of cases and the corresponding past court decisions. The approach is demonstrated to be feasible and effective by predicting the outcome of construction claims in Hong Kong in the last 10 years. The results show that the CBR system is able to give a successful prediction rate higher than 80%. With this, the parties would be more prudent in pursuing litigation and hence the number of disputes could be reduced significantly. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2006.