Probabilistic model of traffic breakdown with random propagation of disturbance for ITS application

Abstract

In this paper, a probabilistic model of vehicular traffic breakdown applicable to Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) is presented. When traffic demand exceeds freeway capacity, the so-called breakdown occurs and the congestion begins. While preventing the breakdown is a major concern of traffic operation, the mechanism of breakdown is not thoroughly explained and most of the research regarding traffic breakdown rely on empirical analysis. To further our understanding of traffic breakdown, this paper explains the phenomenon of traffic breakdown in terms of random propagation of traffic disturbance and proposes a probabilistic model of breakdown. A Monte-Carlo simulation is also conducted to investigate the characteristics of the proposed model. © Springer-Verlag 2004.