Propensities, Probabilities, and Experimental Statistics

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Abstract

I defend a threefold form of pluralism about chance, involving a tripartite distinction between propensities, probabilities, and frequencies. The argument has a negative and a positive part. Negatively, I argue against the identity thesis that informs current propensity theories, which already suggests the need for a tripartite distinction. Positively, I argue that that a tripartite distinction is implicit in much statistical practice. Finally, I apply a well-known framework in the modelling literature in order to characterize these three separate concepts functionally in terms of their roles in modelling practice.

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Suárez, M. (2017). Propensities, Probabilities, and Experimental Statistics. In European Studies in Philosophy of Science (Vol. 5, pp. 335–345). Springer Science and Business Media B.V. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-53730-6_27

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